Ten Year T-Notes Break on Employment Data
The daily bar chart of the 10-year T-note futures contract shows that the market edged into a resistance zone ahead of the release of the employment statistics and the rise in payrolls and the increase in hourly earnings brought out sellers. The market is trading down into a new support zone. Watch the RSI. If it closes below 38, then the down trend is confirmed. If the RSI traces out a pivot low above 38, then a trading range with a bearish bias is underway.
The morning view of the TradeFlow Chart shows why it can be treacherous to hold positions into an economic release. The large red TradeFlow bars shows that sellers did nothing but hit bids following the release of the number. Sellers swept the market. The TradeFlow Volume study appears to indicate no trades, but in reality, the volume of bids being hit was running just a few hundred contracts to just over 1,000 contracts. There were zero contracts traded at the ask price, and that is why the TradeFlow bars are solid red. The market did return to normal volume levels for each aggregated TradeFlow bar, which is running up towards 25,000 contracts traded at the bid or ask price. This lack of liquidity can be a problem if you are not prepared for it.