On October 31, at 14:15 EST or 13:15 CST the FOMC released its new policy directive. This announcement often has a big impact on the markets. I think it is an interesting study to follow how the E-mini S&P traded just before and following the announcement using the CQG TradeFlow charts and Pre-Trade Analytics studies.
The value of CQG’s TradeFlow charts, TradeFlow studies, and Pre-Trade Analytics is the look it provides to you of what other traders are actually doing. Other charting styles just give you the last price. You do not know who the aggressor is in generating the trade. Is the last trade a trader buying or was the trader selling.
TradeFlow charting and TradeFlow studies give you that information. And, with the addition of Pre-Trade Analytics, a group of studies monitoring the activities by traders in the exchange’s electronic order book, you can now track what traders are doing away from the best bid and best ask prices. For example, are traders increasing or canceling their bid orders or ask orders as the market is moving.
Let’s start with the first minute before the announcement. The charts are rather large, but that is because there is a lot of information to follow and the market is really moving around.
Each chart uses a three-tick range aggregated TradeFlow bars, includes my two studies, the TFCross and the TFUmTFD, (I originally called the first study TF5VCrs, but I made it so you could put in any look back period). The next set of studies is from the Pre-Trade Analytics group: the DmTr (DOMTracker) and the DmTrOsc (DOMTracker Oscillator).
The final two sets of studies are the DmAct (DOMActivity), which tracks the amount of changes of the bid orders and ask orders (if a trader enters an order to buy 100 contracts and then cancels the 100 contracts, the reading is 200 contracts) and the DOMActivity Oscillator. The DOMActivity oscillator calculates the difference between the bid volume line and the ask volume line of the DOMActivity Study. Post a comment and I will send a PAC that has one page created with these studies. You need Pre-Trade Analytics enabled to see the studies.
Now, one other point: The DOMTracker measures the resting bid orders and ask orders in the order book. I have noticed that when the amount of resting ask orders is more than the bid orders then the market tends to climb. If the amount of bid orders is more than the amount of ask orders, then the market tends to go lower. This does not happen in every case, and it does not work this way in other markets. It’s just something I have noticed in the e-mini S&P.
So, I changed the colors to be green for the sum of the ask orders line and the sum of the bid orders line is colored red. The default preferences are the opposite. The idea on the default is that more bids should be signs of buyers so it is green and more ask orders is sign of sellers, so it is red.
The Market
The first chart shows the market action two minutes before the announcement. We can see that readings of all of the
studies collapse towards zero. Obviously, traders are backing away. They are not executing trades, which is indicated by the TFCross study falling, and they are not placing orders as indicated by the DOMTracker falling as well.
However, what trading is going on is to the downside and with the small sized orders as resting bids the selling is sweeping the market. Whenever a market is swept (all of the bid or ask orders are taken out) then the TradeFlow bars form a triangle pattern to alert you to this illiquid situation.
The second chart shows again, how thin the market is as we continue to see swept market conditions. Remember, this is a
three-tick range aggregated TradeFlow chart. Each bar should only have a high low difference of three ticks in price. One observation and that is some one did do some large trading at just one point.
The third chart shows what happened as the announcement was made. The initial
reaction is the market swept to the upside and then to the downside. All of the studies are starting to flash higher readings, but they are still low readings relative to typical readings as traders are trying to decide how to react to the FOMC announcement.
The fourth chart shows the completion of the first
minute following the announcement. The market is beginning to be less chaotic as the TradeFlow bars are starting to be the three-tick range and when the market is swept, the ranges are getting smaller.
The fifth image shows the market starting to trend. The red line of the TFCross, which is the five bar running sum of
trades into the bid, is starting to dominate. Usually, a sign of a trend is one line dominates the other, and during the counter trend move, both lines go flat.
Also, like I said, when the market is headed down, the bid line (red) of the DmTr (DOMTracker) study tends to dominate. However, in this example, the opposite is happening, as the green line is dominating. Traders are increasing the size of their orders to sell.
The sixth image shows the trend turned up. One possible indication of a short-term bottom was a peak in selling relative to what we had been seeing as the trades into the bid line climbed above 5,000 contracts. The second indication was
following the low the market climbed and then tuned down, but the bid volume line did not climb. Sellers were backing away. Next, the green line (trades at the ask price) started dominating. That is up trending price/volume action.
The seventh image is interesting. Notice that the trades at the ask (the green line)
climbed above the peak immediately to the left and the red line limbed, too, but the market did not take out the nearby high. It looks like (with the benefit of hindsight) that the buying was not able to take out the resting sell orders. And, the red line of the TFCross climbing with the green line meant traders were selling into to the short-term rally. The lesson is that just because there is a lot of buying does not guarantee that the market will go up. Following this failure, sellers became more aggressive.
The eighth and last image shows the market making a new low, but the trades into the bid (red line) did not make a new
high. The lower prices did not attract more selling.
Then, there was a change as traders became more aggressive at buying then selling. The green line of the TFCross was dominating the red line. Also, when a market is trending, check the TFUmTFD oscillator. That tracks the difference between the bid and ask volume lines of the TFCross. Peaks and troughs can be an early warning to a new short-term trend.
Summary
TradeFlow and Pre-Trade Analytics provide a view into traders actions at the best bid price, best ask price, and what traders are doing away from the current market. This is a view not available in other charting styles. This may seem to close of a view for some, but it could be the final step of analysis. TradeFlow and Pre-Trade Analytics can dovetail with your tried and true market analytics.